NOAA Forecast Predicts Large “Dead Zone” for Gulf of Mexico this Summer
Gulf of Mexico - Courtesy of NOAA
A team of university scientists, supported by NOAA, is forecasting the likeliest largest-on-record “dead zone” in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas this summer.
A dead zone is an area where seasonal oxygen levels drop too low to support most life in bottom and near-bottom waters and is caused by nutrient runoff, principally from agricultural activity, which stimulates an overgrowth of algae that sinks, decomposes, and consumes most of the life-giving oxygen supply in the water.
The team is predicting the area could measure between 7,450 and 8,456 square miles – roughly the size of New Jersey. Additional flooding of the Mississippi River may result in a larger dead zone.
Researchers observed large amounts of nitrogen feeding into the Gulf from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, which experienced heavy water flow in April and May that were 11 percent above average.
Gene Turner, Ph.D., a lead forecast modeler from Louisiana State University said. “The high water volume flows coupled with nearly triple the nitrogen concentrations in these rivers over the past 50 years from human activities has led to a dramatic increase in the size of the dead zone.”
This forecast helps coastal managers, policy makers, and the public better understand and combat the sources of the dead zones. For example, the models that generate this forecast have been used to determine nutrient reduction targets required to reduce the size of the dead zone. This hypoxic, or low-to-no oxygen area, is of particular concern because it threatens valuable commercial and recreational Gulf fisheries by destroying critical habitat.
The team of scientists was supported by NOAA and composed 0f experts from the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Louisiana State University and the University of Michigan.
Bottom life in the Gulf of Mexico - Credit: NURC/UNCW and NOAA/FGBNMS
Copyright © 2009 by Marine Science Today, a publication of OceanLines LLC
[...] NOAA predicted a larger than normal dead zone area of between 7,450 – 8,456 square miles (read previous article). The forecast was driven primarily by the high nitrate loads and high freshwater flows from the [...]